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Thursday, April 7, 2011

Supercomputing for Forecasting Earthquakes?


http://www.businessweek.com/technology/technology_at_work/archives/2011/04/predicting_earthquakes_in_japan_with_supercomputers.html

Here is an interesting article on earthquake forecasting via super computing. I think that this may be one of the many possibilities for earthquake forecasting, for it would work in much of the manner of weather forecasting. It may be statistically based. But there is a problem:

Outside of a theory on Mogi donuts surrounding an area due for an earthquake, seismic activity seems to dodge mathematics. At least today's present level of mathematic capability. As you know, the world of mathematics is continously growing and evolving, so that limitation could change in the future.

I believe that in order to make earthquake forecasting work, we need to combine all the valid and plausible forecasting techniques to get a clearer picture on earthquake patterns and behavior. This would include the measurement of ground ions at fault zones, detecting a rise in them just before a quake hits, which would be about a day or two. Also included would be the measurement of the ionosphere and how it's behaving. There are groups of top scientists studying the changes in the ionosphere just before an moderate to large earthquake hits. Also there is on going study how the release of EM and the excitement of of peroxene and oxygen, and electron excitement just before certain rocks fail and break.

These are valid studies that are essential for saving lives, and must be continuously funded in spite of how tight money is today. I am not into peace, love and harmony in the least bit, and am all for a strong military, but I feel that money spent on international intervention is money wasted, and that funding could be better used for science. Save our military for when we really need it, and that is when citizens and infrastructure at home needs to be protected. Enough said on that ...

Here are some updates on interesting activity:

There has been some activity today throughout the Pacific Ocean, including a 7.1 aftershock off of the Northern Coast of Japan, near where last month's 9.0 struck. Briefly there was a Tsunami watch and various other statements issued, but they have been lifted.

In the Chiapas region of Mexico, near Veracruz, there has been a strong earthquake too.

Locally: The area just south of Mexicali, near Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico, has had some aftershocks, including a moderate one, and this one I felt as a slight vibration and house noise. To the north of that aftershock, the area around Octotillo, Ca, is active again with micro-quakes and aftershocks, especially around Signal Mountain.

Salton Buttes volcano has been having on going and scattered micro quakes.

Yellowstone supervolcano is having on going micro-quakes, as well as is Mammoth Mountain Volcano in central California.

And there area other earthquakes within the ring of fire. Busy day...


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